Old thread! But this is very much still a current topic.
In my very limited experience, weather forecasts and wind numbers are only helpful for big picture context (weather radar is even better for that). It comes down to very local conditions at your launch site plus your comfort level on any given day. Some days I go out and kite the wing and everything seems good so I go for a flight. Other days I kite a bit and it feels like twisting winds, or little thermals, or I'm feeling a bit tired or hung over or distracted and I just put the gear away.
If the weather forecast is even vaguely close to flyable, it's worth getting out there with the wing to test things out. If it doesn't look good, at least you got a bit of ground handling practice in, and you'll have learned more about the weather.