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Watching the weather has made me curious about gusts. Recently in the area where I live, the forecasts have shown winds such as 5 gusting 20+, normally they would show 5 gusting 10.

I can (in my limited knowledge) think of the following gust creation modes:

1) Localised thermals and cumulus clouds - as they are created and die, as they move around they will cause the wind to rise and fall.
2) Rotors from smaller local structures and obstacles. As rolling rotors form and break away from trees, buildings etc they will cause winds to rise and fall.
3) Rotors from larger obstacles - mountains, large hills etc

1 and 2 are very localised and therefore can't really be 'forecast'. But I want to understand what it is the met office looks at in order to determine the gust strength that is likely to be present in a particular area.

Can anybody explain to me ?

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